Dr. Tom Hladish, research scientist in the Department of Biology and Emerging Pathogens Institute, was called upon by the Florida Department of Health (DOH) to advise on its COVID-19 response. An expert in infectious disease dynamics and intervention, Dr. Hladish developed statistical forecasting models to help DOH plan for healthcare needs, predicting which counties were likely to have greater need based on age structure and risk of severe outcomes, and where the Army Corps of Engineers should build temporary health facilities. Dr. Hladish has also worked with DOH staff to help them better understand predictions from COVID-19 models developed by different research groups.
Over recent months, Dr. Hladish has dedicated himself to studying models and data related to the outbreak, and to working with journalists to improve the accuracy of science communication. Dr. Hladish has been interviewed and quoted by national news outlets such as The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, CNN, and Vox, and local syndicates including the Tampa Bay Times and National Public Radio’s member station WUFT-FM in Jacksonville.
During spring 2020, when New York and some other U.S. cities were overwhelmed with COVID-19 cases, journalists were interested to know: Why was the outbreak in Florida much milder than originally feared? Cell phone mobility data indicate that Floridians began to shelter in place weeks before the governor’s ‘safer-at-home’ order took effect on April 3, as individuals modified their behavior based on media reports and public health advice. Dr. Hladish is confident that this rapid behavioral response is what initially flattened the curve in Florida. As of late June, the number of COVID-19 cases was rising sharply in Florida as economic and social activities increased, and Dr. Hladish expressed concerns about potential spillover events into higher risk populations.
This story originally appeared on the UF Biology Spring/Summer 2020 Newsletter.
Check out more stories about UF research on COVID-19.